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British General Election, 1997

On the basis of the ICM poll, Brian Jarvis calculates the following possible distribution of seats:
(winning number=330)

Labour: 374, LibDem: 30; Cons: 228; Other: 27

6-9 December30%51%13%Others: 6%MORI
7th February34%49%12%The Telegraph Gallup
16th February31%49%13%Others: 6%1,576NOP, Sunday Times
27th February31%52%11%Others: 6%1,940MORI, The Times
3rd March30%48%16%Others: 6%ICM, Guardian
7th March28%54%12.5%Referendum: 2%The Telegraph Gallup
16th March27%52%13%25% undecided1,596NOP, Sunday Times
18th March28.5%56.5%9.5%Referendum: 1.5%1,045The Telegraph Gallup
2nd April32%46%17%Others: 5%1200ICM, Guardian
3rd April28%55%11%16% undecided
or refused
1118MORI, The Times
4th April31%52%11%Others: 6%1126The Telegraph Gallup
6th April30%55%9%MORI, Sunday Mirror
33%48%14%ICM, Observer
28%52%12%1575NOP, Sunday Times
7th April32%53%10%13% undecided
or refused
1027The Telegraph Gallup
8th April33%53%10%Others: 4%1020The Telegraph Gallup
9th April32%51%11%Others: 6%1122The Telegraph Gallup
34%46%15%ICM, Guardian
10th April30%53%11%1019The Telegraph Gallup
34%49%12%1114MORI, The Times
11th April30%52%11%Others: 7%1195The Telegraph Gallup
12th April32%52%11%Others: 5%1143The Telegraph Gallup
13th April33%49%12%Gallup, Sunday Telegraph
28%48%17%1595NOP, Sunday Times
32%48%15%Re-interviewsICM, Observer
14th April32%4914%1039The Telegraph Gallup
15th April31%49%13%10% don't know
or refuse
1050The Daily Telegraph
16th April30%51%12%1025The Daily Telegraph
31%45%19%1007ICM, Guardian
17th April31%50%11%9% don't know
or refused
1025The Telegraph Gallup
32%49%13%15% don't know
or refused
1137MORI, The Times
18th April31%50%12%Referendum: 3%1023The Telegraph Gallup
31%49%13%Harris, The Independent
19th April32%50%13%1018The Telegraph Gallup
20th April31%50%13%The Telegraph Gallup
32%47%16%ICM, Observer
31%45%17%1595NOP, Sunday Times
21st April32%48%13%1033The Telegraph Gallup
22nd April32%48%12%1294The Telegraph Gallup
23rd April30%51%12%1129The Telegraph Gallup
37%42%14%ICM Guardian
24th April30%50%12%Others: 8%1069The Telegraph Gallup
25th April32%48%12%Others: 8%1038The Telegraph Gallup
26th April32%48%14%1012The Telegraph Gallup
27th April29%12%MORI, Independent on Sunday
31%48%13%The Telegraph Gallup
29%47%16%1588NOP, Sunday Times
32%47%16%ICM, Observer
28 April30%49%14%1028The Telegraph Gallup
29th April29%51%13%1344The Telegraph Gallup
30th April31%51%13%12% Don't Know
or refused
1038The Telegraph Gallup
1st May33%47%14%1849The Telegraph Gallup
28%48%16%11% undecided
or refused
2304MORI, The Times
28%50%14%NOP, Reuters
31%45%15%HARRIS, Independent
33%43%18%ICM, Guardian
[ICM Research] [GALLUP] [MORI] [NOP]

Wirral by-election:
Labour 53%; Conservative 34%; LibDem 10%; Others 3%.
According to the BBC, this would represent a House of Commons having:-
476 Labour; 126 Conservative; Liberal Democrats 13; others 44, giving an overall majority of 293.
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Last Modified: 22 Oct 12