Predictions Compared

Seat predictions

Party
Iain Dale
UK Polling Report
Electoral Calculus
Election Forecast
Elections Etc
Exit Poll
Actual result
Conservative276277281281285316331
Labour267267276266262239232
SNP54525251535856
LibDem2329182725108
DUP88
Plaid Cymru3443
SDLP33
UKIP51121
Greens11121
Other2418826197

% voteConLabLibDemUKIPGreen
UKPR poll average34%33%9%15%5%
Actual result37%30%8%13%4%


Constituencies

The table compares some of the predictions for a selection of marginal constituencies in England and Wales, as at 9th March 2015

Colour key:
Con    Green    Lab    LibDem    UKIP    
Constituency
2010 result
2010 runner-up
2014 local elections
Iain Dale
Electoral Calculus
Election Forecast
May2015
Prediction2015
Lord Ashcroft
PaddyPower
Actual result
Hampstead & Kilburn0.08%5.66%69%98%13.40%2/9
Warwickshire N0.11%-68%77%7.40%2/7
Camborne & Redruth0.16%-56%100%3.23%4/9
Bolton W0.19%10.67%70%97%9.40%1/7
Thurrock0.20%6.30%62%74%7.97%4/6
Hendon0.23%1.68%70%93%10.31%2/9
Oldham E & Saddleworth §0.23%10.99%73%100%2.99%-1/33
Oxford W & Abingdon0.31%-75%100%10.18%1/7
Solihull0.32%15.52%69%100%11.18%1/5
Ashfield0.40%-75%100%21.50%-1/6
Sheffield Central0.40%12.36%93%100%24.33%-1/25
Cardiff N0.41%-86%79%6.31%1/6
Southampton Itchen0.43%0.54%70%53%3.60%
 
 
2/5
Sherwood0.44%-69%71%4.31%2/9
Dorset Mid & Poole N0.57%-74%99%8.18%1/7
Norwich S0.65%* 0.28%67%99%8.30%1/5
Stockton S0.66%-68%86%1.69%4/6
Broxtowe0.74%-69%73%4.31%2/5
Lancaster & Fleetwood0.78%-68%95%9.31%1/5
Truro & Falmouth0.89%-71%100%11.23%1/16
Bradford E0.90%10.22%76%100%20.50%1/5
Newton Abbot1.08%-77%100%19.23%1/10
Amber Valley1.17% 12.82%67%62%0.69%2/5
Chesterfield1.20%-89%100%25.55%-1/20
Wirral S1.33%4.71%73%100%14.29%1/12
Derby N1.36%9.42%70%99%19.29%1/5
Swansea W1.42%-83%100%23.50%-1/20
Wells1.43%-73%99%9.18%1/3
Waveney1.50%-65%75%4.31%1/4
Dudley N1.68%3.06%71%97%4.98%1/5
Wolverhampton S W1.72%4.49%66%83%11.31%1/4
Hull N1.93% 24.67%88%100%26.6%-1/40
Rochdale1.94%31.01%85%100%23.56%-1/16
Harrogate & Knaresborough1.96% 6.15%81%100%18.13%1/25
Morecambe & Lunesdale1.99%-66%61%1.69%8/13
Carlisle2.02%# 6.58%66%80%7.40%8/15
Great Grimsby2.17%7.95%64%100%2.98%4/7
Stroud2.24% 9.21%63%65%7.40%1/2
Morley & Outwood2.25%8.66%73%98%15.29%1/10
Weaver Vale2.25%-65%77%5.40%1/3
Lincoln2.31% 12.65%65%68%0.40%2/5
Telford2.37%-73%98%15.29%1/5
Brighton Pavilion2.42%-63%97%11.39%2/5
Watford2.58%15.19%52%84%3.94%5/4
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport2.62%6.37%60%69%9.40%1/5
Walsall N2.74%4.13%73%98%5.84%1/4
St Austell & Newquay2.78%-63%97%3.18%4/7
Dewsbury2.83%7.92%64%84%6.40%1/2
Warrington S2.83% 6.50%63%60%4.40%1/4
Brent Central2.97%38.11%92%100%33.50%1/10
Bedford3.00%-63%74%6.40%2/5
Somerton & Frome3.00%-71%100%16.18%1/7
Birmingham Edgbaston3.06%5.61%77%100%15.40%2/9
Brighton Kemptown3.11%-62%63%1.43%8/15
Sutton & Cheam3.31%9.84%67%99%15.82%4/9
Halifax3.38%-74%99%15.29%1/6

§ By-election: 13th January 2011

NB: Not all local authorities held elections in 2014 and even where they did, some wards for some seats were not included:
* excludes New Costessey ward
 excludes Ripley and Marehay, Swanwick, and Wingfield
 excludes Beverley, Kings Park, and Newland
 excludes Boroughbridge, Claro, and Killinghall
# excludes Burgh
 excludes Amberley & Woodchester, Eastington & Standish, Farmhill & Paganhill, Over Stroud, Rodborough, Slade, Thrupp, Trinity, Uplands, Upton St Leonards, and Valley
 excludes Bracebridge Heath & Waddington East, and Skellingthorpe
 excludes Hatton, Stretton and Walton, and Stockton Heath
percentage figures shown are percentage majorities

2010 figures are percentage majorities
Iain Dale's seat by seat predictions are available as an ebook
Electoral Calculus and Election Forecast figures are the percentage chance of winning
May2015 figures are the predicted percentage majority
Prediction2015 has predictions for the party share in each seat
Lord Ashcroft has a list of constituency polls done in the last 12 months
PaddyPower has the odds for each constituency
What We Got Wrong In Our 2015 U.K. General Election Model , Ben Lauderdale